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| Are the right praying for a David or an Ed victory? |
That is the question
Sunny Hundal on Liberal Conspiracy keeps returning to lately. He has more than once claimed that the Conservatives would prefer a David Miliband victory, and are more worried about the prospect of facing his younger brother.
His evidence? Well, that is somewhat murky. Some indications in the press say that the Tories, including David Cameron, fear David Miliband the most.
Sunny's response has been to suggest this is a reverse ferret, designed to confuse the left into supporting the wrong candidate. So for instance, when the Guardian ran the story that David Cameron is most concerned by the prospect of a DM victory, Sunny said that this was an 'obvious ruse', put about by someone 'who wants the Labour Party to believe this stuff'.
On Twitter, he also says today, '
If you want to know who Tories fear - look at who they disparage, not who they admire and praise.'
All of which would be fine if Sunny was not inclined to believe rightwing commentators and their sources in the Tory party when they say things that favour his preferred candidates and narrative. Sunny does not, for instance, think that James Forsyth or his Tory sources are trying to mislead when they claim that CCHQ wants DM to win, because it will be easier to pin Labour's past mistakes on him. And Sunny also believes that Boris Johnson is speaking from the heart when he heaps praise on Ed Balls' approach to tackling the deficit, rather than attempting to lead Labour up the garden path, as the 'look at who they disparage, not who they admire and praise' maxim would suggest.
Let us leave all this aside, however. Partly in response to me, and partly in response to Christopher Cook of the FT, Sunny has now put up a post on LibCon explaining his reasons for thinking that the Tories are hoping for a DM win. Let's examine his reasoning. For space reasons, I'll concentrate on what he says about economic matters.
Sunny claims that the Tories want DM to win because of his approach to the deficit. He makes two key points about this, both of which are highly problematic:
1) Sunny says DM's plan is not distinguishable from the Tory plan. It allegedly involves conceding the argument on the deficit to the Tories, and will allow them to say ‘see, he accepts Labour went too far in allowing the debt to get out of hand‘. Sunny writes:
Politically – it’s not an easily explainable or different enough plan from the Conservatives. It admits that Labour got it wrong on trying to protect the economy rather than cutting the deficit. This lack of a clear political message over the economy is why Labour lost the last election so badly – people saw Labour admitting they had messed up the economy.
This, however, is full of questionable claims. First, Sunny consistently talks up the similarity between the Tory plan and DM's plan, and unjustifiably so. DM's plan is to halve the deficit in the lifetime of a parliament, rather than eliminate it entirely, at a hell-for-leather pace. DM's plan involves reducing the deficit via a 2:1 mix of cuts to tax rises, as opposed to Osborne's 4:1. And DM's plan has an escape clause, whereby the pace of deficit reduction can be slowed depending on the economic outlook. The only way these plans can be mistaken for one another is if the public are repeatedly told, as Sunny does, that they are identical. Moreover, Sunny thinks that the provision for an escape hatch is 'minutae that will go over the head of most voters and the media.' Yet, I don't think the public will find it too difficult to grasp the idea that DM would not cut at the expense of the economy, whilst the Tories give every indication that they would.
Second, the DM deficit plan does not, in any way, involve implicitly conceding to the Tories that Labour was wrong to increase the deficit at the time. I simply do not see why, in general, one would think that any deficit reduction plan implies a judgement about the reasons for having a deficit in the first place. It is perfectly consistent for David Miliband to argue that it was the right thing to do at the time to allow the deficit to grow, but now something must be done (albeit not the same thing as the Tories demand).
Third, Sunny has no evidence that Labour's proposals on the deficit prior to the election, to which DM still adheres, were responsible for its losing. There is evidence, however, that the public was sick of the Labour brand, and of Gordon Brown in particular, and would not have stomached five more years of the latter for all the tea in China. The public voted for the Tories despite being unconvinced by the Tory plans for the deficit. And there were
some indications from polling that the public were more friendly to the Labour line on the deficit going into the election.
The fact is that now there is a potential big opening for a Labour alternative that says that the deficit should be taken seriously, but can be reduced more slowly, safely, and fairly, than the Tories are doing. The Tories are scared, as the papers constantly tell us, that they will not be able to recover from the anger that the impending cuts will generate. DM will be able to argue that there is another way, and the government has reason to be fearful of that.
By contrast, it is seriously doubtful, given that polling indicates that the public certainly believe that the deficit needs addressing, and that cuts in some measure are needed, that the Ed Balls approach would be taken seriously at all. Indeed, if Labour were to make the Ed Balls case now, they would be asked to explain their radical change of heart since the election, when all cabinet members endorsed the Darling strategy. If Ed Balls or Ed Miliband were leader, they would be asked why they ought to be taken seriously on economic affairs at all, if they are the kind of politician to insist that cuts are needed in May, and to deny it in September.
The bottom line is that Sunny's claim that David Miliband's approach to the deficit concedes too much to the Tories depends on distorting what the latter stands for until it is unrecognisable. Sunny is highly exercised by the need to create clear blue water between Labour and the Tories on the deficit. That is fine, but there is already enough water between the Tory plan and the DM plan, and it is far from clear that a policy that is even further removed, such as the Balls proposal, could be argued for credibly at this stage. It's no good having a more distinct policy that is also widely taken to be a turkey.
2. Sunny claims that DM's plan for the deficit would lead to infighting in Labour with opponents on the left, which the Tories would relish. That is an odd point, and can be safely ignored, since it can also be made in reverse. In other words, why is it not a problem with the Balls proposal that it will not be accepted by centrists? The fact is that whoever is leader, someone's preferred policy on the deficit will not be adopted. Those people will just have to suck it up, whoever they turn out to be.
Some further, shorter points in response to Sunny:
a) He claims that DM 'hasn’t attacked the Coalition from the right on issues.' However, like Sunny's misrepresentation of DM's position on the deficit, repeating the mantra that he is just (in effect) another Tory isn't enough to make it true.
Don Paskini recently provided a list of solidly leftwing policies adopted by David Miliband in this campaign:
- an economic strategy which aims to halve unemployment
- a living wage
- doubling the bank levy
- a mansion tax on the wealthiest homeowners to reverse housing benefit cuts
- withdrawing charitable status from private schools to pay for an expansion of free school meals
- defending universal benefits
- marriage equality for same sex couples
- a comprehensive strategy to rid the world of nuclear weapons
- training 1,000 future leaders to campaign in their communities
- building more affordable homes and creating more green jobs as part of an industrial strategy to reduce Britain's dependency on the City of London
On what world does advocating these policies not involve attacking the coalition from the left?
And by the same token, Ed Miliband is hardly immune from the charge of adopting rightwing talking points. For instance, in an
interview with Sunny himself back in July, when asked whether Labour went too far in waging war on benefits claimants, Ed said 'For the most part I don’t think we were too harsh' -an astonishing claim, I'd have thought, for many on the left.
b) Sunny also has an unfortunate tendency of suggesting that supporters of David Miliband, such as Jack Straw and Alan Johnson, speak for his campaign. Conversely, it is not clear that he is wholly on top of his own chosen candidate's policies. For example, he says that David Miliband would be hamstrung in building a progressive alliance by his continuing commitment to Trident. This ignores that Ed Miliband is
also committed to keeping Trident.
c) Sunny does not make any attempt to explore in what way Ed Miliband's victory might be a gift to the Tories. At the very least, then, he doesn't give us a balanced appraisal. On that score, there is at least some room to fear that the Tories would be able to effectively portray the younger Miliband as the reincarnation of Gordon Brown. After all, he is from the Brownite wing of the party. He owes his career, in large measure, to Brown's patronage. He wrote the manifesto the country rejected at the polls this year, on behalf of Brown. He is heavily backed by increasinngly assertive unions, again calling to mind Brown, who was with some effectiveness (and however unfairly) portrayed in the rightwing press as in thrall to his 'union paymasters' during the days of the BA strike, etc. And he shares with Brown the fact that, as
Paul Sagar notes, he is not in any way a polished media performer, but instead appears slightly awkward and off-putting.
Note that these last points are not intended to suggest that the Tories are praying for Ed Miliband. I happen to think it is a futile enterprise trying to second guess their preferences, and I would advise Sunny not to try.